The short answer to what’s happening with Social Security right now: the 2025 Trustees Report pulled the combined trust fund depletion date forward to 2034, a January 2025 law has already sent $17 billion in retroactive payments to public-sector retirees, the agency has tightened identity rules that force more applicants into field offices, and the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment is 2.8 percent. Congress is debating reform bills, but none are close to passing.
Trust Fund Depletion Moved Up to 2034
Social Security runs on two trust funds: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund for retirement and survivor benefits, and the Disability Insurance (DI) fund for workers with qualifying disabilities. Both are funded mainly through payroll taxes.1Social Security Administration. What Are the Trust Funds
The 2025 Trustees Report projects the combined OASI and DI funds will run dry in 2034, a year earlier than the 2024 estimate. The OASI fund alone, which pays out most benefits, is projected to be depleted by 2033.2Social Security Administration. Trustees Report Summary
Depletion is not the same as bankruptcy. Payroll taxes coming in from current workers would still cover a large share of scheduled payments. But that share has slipped. The 2025 report projects the combined funds could pay 81 percent of scheduled benefits after 2034, down from 83 percent in last year’s projection. For the OASI fund alone, the figure is 77 percent after 2033.2Social Security Administration. Trustees Report Summary Without action from Congress, that translates to a benefit cut somewhere between 19 and 23 percent for every retiree and survivor.
The Social Security Fairness Act Is Boosting Checks for Public Retirees
The biggest recent change most people haven’t heard about, unless it applies to them, is the Social Security Fairness Act, signed on January 5, 2025. It repealed the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO), two rules that had reduced or eliminated benefits for more than 2.8 million people.3Social Security Administration. Social Security Fairness Act: Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset Update
WEP cut retirement benefits for people who earned a pension from a job that didn’t pay into Social Security, including many state and local government workers, public school teachers in certain states, and some federal employees hired before 1984. GPO applied the same idea to spousal and survivor benefits, often wiping them out entirely when the person’s own government pension exceeded two-thirds of the Social Security benefit they would otherwise have received.
Both provisions are gone, retroactive to January 2024. By mid-2025 the SSA had processed more than 3.1 million payments totaling $17 billion, five months ahead of its own schedule.3Social Security Administration. Social Security Fairness Act: Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset Update If you draw a pension from non-covered public-sector work and haven’t looked at your Social Security recently, your monthly amount may have gone up.
New Identity Rules and Field Office Disruption
Inside the agency, service is being restructured while the workforce shrinks. Internal planning documents reported in 2025 pointed to a target headcount around 50,000 and consolidation of field offices, though SSA leadership has publicly disputed parts of that account.
What is on the record: starting April 14, 2025, anyone applying for retirement, survivor, or spousal benefits who cannot verify identity through a personal my Social Security online account must appear in person at a field office. Phone-only filing is no longer accepted for those benefit types.4Social Security Administration. Social Security Updates Recently Announced Identity Proofing Disability, Medicare, and SSI applicants can still finish claims by phone if they cannot use the online portal. Changes to direct deposit information also now require either an online account or an in-person visit.
Field offices around the country have experienced temporary closures and phone-only periods, and some remain closed to walk-ins indefinitely.5Social Security Administration. Office Closings and Emergencies For anyone planning to file soon, opening a my Social Security account now can spare you a trip and a wait later.
The 2026 COLA and What Medicare Takes Back
The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is set automatically by comparing third-quarter CPI-W data year over year. Congress does not vote on it; the formula has run on autopilot since 1975.6Social Security Administration. Latest Cost-of-Living Adjustment
For 2026, the COLA is 2.8 percent. That brings the average monthly retirement benefit to an estimated $2,071.7Social Security Administration. 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet The 2026 figure follows 2.5 percent for 2025 and 3.2 percent for 2024, both well below the 8.7 percent adjustment that hit in 2023.
The number that actually lands in your account is often smaller than the headline COLA, because Medicare Part B premiums come straight out of the check. For 2026, the standard Part B premium is $202.90 per month.8Medicare.gov. Medicare Costs Higher-income beneficiaries pay income-related surcharges that can push the total above $689 per month. When Medicare premiums climb faster than the COLA, some retirees see little or no net increase.
2026 Earnings Limits and the Payroll Tax Cap
If you claim benefits before full retirement age and keep working, the earnings test can temporarily hold back part of your check. For 2026, the limit is $24,480. Above that, the SSA withholds $1 for every $2 you earn over the threshold.9Social Security Administration. Receiving Benefits While Working
In the calendar year you reach full retirement age, a higher limit of $65,160 applies to earnings in the months before your birthday month, with $1 withheld for every $3 over the limit. Once you actually reach your full retirement age month, the test disappears and you can earn any amount with no reduction.9Social Security Administration. Receiving Benefits While Working Money withheld under the test isn’t gone. The SSA recalculates your benefit at full retirement age to give it back over time in higher monthly payments.
On the funding side, the 6.2 percent payroll tax on employees, matched by employers, only applies up to an annual earnings cap. For 2026, that cap is $184,500.10Social Security Administration. What Is the Current Maximum Amount of Taxable Earnings for Social Security Every dollar earned above the cap is exempt, which is why it sits at the center of most reform debates.
Reform Bills in Play
With the trust fund depletion date now roughly eight years out, Congress is weighing several proposals, though none has a clear path to passage.
The Social Security 2100 Act would create a minimum benefit equal to 125 percent of the federal poverty level for workers with 30 or more years of coverage, and would switch the annual adjustment from CPI-W to a Consumer Price Index for the Elderly that weights healthcare costs more heavily.11Social Security Administration. Office of the Chief Actuary – Social Security 2100 Act
The Social Security Expansion Act would raise benefits by $2,400 per year ($200 per month) for current and future beneficiaries. To pay for it, the bill would apply the payroll tax to earnings above $250,000, leaving a gap between the current cap and the $250,000 threshold where no tax applies, and would extend the 12.4 percent combined payroll tax rate to investment and business income for high earners.12Congress.gov. Social Security Expansion Act
Other ideas circulating on the Hill include pushing the full retirement age past 67, means-testing benefits for wealthier retirees, and standing up a bipartisan commission to negotiate a full package. None has the votes today. The longer any fix waits, the larger the eventual tax increase or benefit cut will need to be to close the gap.