FEMA Per Capita Damage Indicators: Statewide and County Thresholds

FEMA’s per capita damage indicators are the dollar-per-person figures the agency uses to gauge whether a disaster is big enough, relative to the affected population, to justify federal Public Assistance. For fiscal year 2026, the statewide indicator is $1.94 per person and the countywide indicator is $4.86 per person.¹ Neither number is an automatic pass-fail cutoff. They are starting points FEMA reads alongside several other factors when recommending whether a disaster has overwhelmed a jurisdiction’s capacity to recover on its own.

The Statewide Indicator

When a governor requests a major disaster declaration for Public Assistance, FEMA compares the estimated cost of damage to public infrastructure against the state’s population. The regulation at 44 CFR 206.48(a)(1) starts from a base of $1 per capita and adjusts it each year for inflation. That figure now stands at $1.94 for fiscal year 2026.¹

The math is simple. Multiply $1.94 by the state’s population and you get the dollar threshold. A state of 5 million residents would need to show at least $9.7 million in eligible public damage before FEMA would consider the financial impact significant. Eligible damage covers debris removal, emergency protective measures, and repair or replacement of public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, water systems, and government buildings.²

Falling below the indicator does not disqualify a state. The regulation calls it an “indicator,” not a requirement, and the President holds final authority to grant or deny a declaration. Still, coming in well short makes approval much harder in practice.

The Countywide Indicator

Once a state qualifies, FEMA applies a separate, higher per capita figure at the county level to decide which specific counties get designated for Public Assistance. For fiscal year 2026, that figure is $4.86 per person.¹ It is more than double the statewide number because it measures how concentrated the damage is, not how big the state’s total loss is.

The consequence: a state can receive a federal declaration while individual counties inside it are left out. A county of 50,000 residents with $200,000 in public infrastructure damage shows a per capita impact of $4.00, below the $4.86 line. That county would likely not be designated, and the local government would carry the full repair cost even though the state itself qualified.

FEMA recognizes that raw per capita arithmetic can miss situations where damage is severe but tightly concentrated. Under the regulation, “localized impacts” allow FEMA to recommend designating a county even when the statewide indicator falls short. Per capita damage running into the tens or hundreds of dollars per person in a single community, or damage to critical facilities such as hospitals and water treatment plants, can justify assistance despite low statewide totals.²

Other Factors FEMA Weighs

The per capita indicators are the most visible piece of the evaluation, but 44 CFR 206.48 lists several other factors, and any of them can tip a close call.

Insurance coverage in force at the time of the disaster, including coverage that should have been in force under applicable laws. FEMA reduces its anticipated assistance by that insurance amount, which can shrink a state’s effective damage total.²
Hazard mitigation. States and local governments that invested in measures reducing damage from the disaster in question get credit for that work.
Recent multiple disasters. FEMA reviews federal declarations and state-declared emergencies over the preceding twelve months, factoring the cumulative fiscal burden into its recommendation.
Other federal assistance. If another agency’s programs can more appropriately address the damage, FEMA weighs that availability against the need for a Public Assistance declaration.

Two disasters with identical per capita damage figures can produce different outcomes. A well-insured state with a full emergency fund is in a different position than one that just drained its reserves on a previous event.

Federal Cost Share and the Catastrophic Indicator

Clearing the indicators gets a jurisdiction designated. It does not mean FEMA pays every dollar. The Stafford Act sets the federal share at a minimum of 75 percent of eligible costs for permanent repair work, debris removal, and emergency protective measures, with the state and local government splitting the remaining 25 percent.³

For catastrophic events, the federal share can rise. FEMA uses a separate per capita indicator under 44 CFR 206.47 to recommend increasing the federal cost share from 75 percent to as high as 90 percent. For disasters declared in 2026, that qualifying threshold is $189 per capita of state or tribal population.⁴ For a state of 10 million people, damage would need to reach $1.89 billion before this higher cost share applies.

Project Thresholds Once a County Is Designated

Designation alone does not qualify every repair for federal funding. FEMA sets a minimum project threshold below which it will not process a grant. For fiscal year 2026, that floor is $4,100.¹ Repairs costing less than that are the local government’s responsibility, because the administrative cost of processing the grant would rival the repair itself.⁵

Above the floor, FEMA sorts eligible work into two categories by estimated cost. Projects below $1,093,800 for fiscal year 2026 are “small projects” and are funded based on the cost estimate at approval, with the applicant keeping any underrun and generally absorbing any overrun. Projects at or above that amount are “large projects” and are reimbursed based on documented actual costs as the work progresses.¹⁶

How Tribal Requests Are Handled

Federally recognized tribal governments can request major disaster declarations directly from the President, independent of the state process. When a tribal nation requests Public Assistance, the minimum damage amount supporting that request is $100,000.⁷ FEMA’s per capita indicator page does not list a separate tribal per capita figure; the $1.94 statewide and $4.86 countywide indicators apply to tribal evaluations as well, and the cost share adjustment indicator of $189 per capita explicitly references “state or tribal population.”⁴

How the Numbers Change Each Year

Every dollar figure above shifts annually. FEMA adjusts the statewide indicator, the countywide indicator, the minimum project threshold, and the large project threshold based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.² The updated figures are published in the Federal Register before the start of each fiscal year, and the new amounts apply to disasters with incident start dates on or after October 1.⁸ Population figures come from U.S. Census Bureau data.

The complete set of thresholds for fiscal year 2026:

Statewide per capita indicator: $1.94
Countywide per capita indicator: $4.86
Minimum project threshold: $4,100
Large project threshold: $1,093,800
Cost share adjustment indicator: $189 per capita
Tribal Public Assistance minimum damage amount: $100,000

1
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Per Capita Impact Indicator and Project Thresholds
2
eCFR. 44 CFR 206.48 – Factors Considered When Evaluating a Governors Request for a Major Disaster Declaration
3
U.S. Department of the Interior. Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, as Amended
4
Federal Register. Notice of Adjustment of Statewide Per Capita Indicator for Recommending a Cost Share Adjustment
5
eCFR. 44 CFR 206.202 – Application Procedures
6
Federal Register. Public Assistance Programs Simplified Procedures Large Project Threshold
7
FEMA. Tribal Declarations Interim Guidance – Summary of Changes
8
Federal Register. Notice of Adjustment of Countywide Per Capita Impact Indicator