The EB-1A approval rate averaged roughly 71% across the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025 and dropped to about 67% in Q3, the lowest quarterly figure in three years. Petition volume has surged more than 50% year over year, and USCIS adjudicators are applying tighter scrutiny during the final merits review. If you are weighing whether to file for extraordinary ability, the headline number is only part of the picture; what matters more is why the rate is sliding and where cases are actually failing.
The Numbers Through FY2025
USCIS publishes quarterly data on receipts, approvals, and denials. Through the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, the agency received roughly 22,100 EB-1A petitions, approved about 10,200, and denied around 4,100. The quarterly trend is downward: Q1 landed near 75%, Q2 at about 73%, and Q3 at approximately 67%.
Compare that to the same window in FY2024, when USCIS received about 14,400 petitions, approved roughly 8,900, and denied about 3,600. The raw number of approvals actually grew year over year. The problem is that filings grew faster. The pending backlog nearly doubled over the same stretch, from around 9,200 cases at the end of Q3 FY2024 to more than 18,100 at the same point in FY2025.
So the approval rate is falling not because USCIS is approving fewer petitions in absolute terms, but because the denominator is expanding faster than the numerator. More people are trying, and the agency is not relaxing its standards to keep pace.
Why Denials Are Rising
Practitioners report that Requests for Evidence now appear in 40% to 50% of self-petitioned EB-1A cases. That is a working signal that officers are probing evidence quality more aggressively than they did a few years ago. An RFE is not a denial, and many petitions that draw one still get approved after the applicant supplies what was missing. But the volume of RFEs points to how the review is tightening: officers are less willing to give the benefit of the doubt on thin documentation.
The regulatory bar itself has not moved. Under 8 C.F.R. ยง 204.5(h)(2), extraordinary ability means expertise indicating that a person is “one of that small percentage who have risen to the very top of the field of endeavor.”1eCFR. 8 CFR 204.5 – Petitions for Employment-Based Immigrants That is not top 10% or even top 5%. USCIS reads it as the very peak of a field, and the whole petition has to support that conclusion.
Where Petitions Actually Fail: The Kazarian Two-Step
Since the Ninth Circuit’s 2010 decision in Kazarian v. USCIS, 596 F.3d 1115, USCIS has used a two-step process to evaluate every EB-1A petition. Step one is largely a counting exercise: has the applicant submitted qualifying evidence for at least three of the ten regulatory categories? Most well-prepared petitions clear this step.
Step two is where most denials happen. The officer steps back and looks at the entire record to decide whether the evidence, taken together, actually demonstrates that the applicant has risen to the very top of the field. An applicant might check the boxes for publications, judging, and a high salary and still be denied if none of it reflects sustained, field-defining impact.2U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. USCIS Policy Manual Volume 6 Part F Chapter 2 – Extraordinary Ability
This is the discretionary layer. The USCIS Policy Manual instructs officers to articulate specific reasons for a denial rather than making general assertions about insufficient evidence, but the final merits determination is inherently subjective. Two officers reviewing the same file can reach different conclusions. That subjectivity is a significant part of why approval rates vary and why a case that looks strong on paper can still lose.
What Weak Petitions Look Like
The most common failure pattern is what practitioners call checklist syndrome. An applicant assembles evidence that technically satisfies three categories but never explains why any of it matters. A few peer reviews for a mid-tier journal will satisfy the judging criterion on paper, but it does not signal extraordinary ability. A salary that is high locally but unremarkable in the broader field weakens the narrative rather than strengthening it.
USCIS has specifically called out one type of evidence that rarely helps: generic support letters. Letters that restate the regulatory definitions or make broad, unsupported claims about the applicant’s importance carry almost no weight.2U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. USCIS Policy Manual Volume 6 Part F Chapter 2 – Extraordinary Ability Effective letters come from independent experts who can explain with specifics how the work changed or advanced the field. The letter writer’s own credentials matter too. A recommendation from a recognized leader in the field carries more weight than one from a colleague at the same institution.
The other frequent problem is missing context. Saying you have 200 citations means nothing unless you show where that places you relative to peers in the same subfield and career stage. Claiming a leading role at an organization falls flat if you do not establish that the organization itself has a distinguished reputation. Every piece of evidence needs a frame of reference that helps the officer understand its significance.
Recent USCIS Guidance Changes
USCIS updated its guidance on several of the ten criteria in recent years. The agency now considers team awards under the prizes criterion, accepts past memberships rather than requiring current ones, and no longer demands that published material demonstrate the value of the applicant’s contributions. It also clarified that non-artistic exhibitions generally do not qualify under the exhibitions criterion unless the applicant makes a supported claim for comparable evidence.3U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. USCIS Issues New Guidance on EB-1 Eligibility Criteria for Individuals with Extraordinary Ability
These changes generally read as taxpayer-friendly at step one but do nothing to soften step two. You may find it easier to check three boxes than you would have a few years ago, and still lose on final merits.
How to Improve Your Odds
Focus your evidence on the three or four strongest criteria rather than trying to satisfy as many as possible with thin proof. Each criterion you claim should be supported with primary documents (the award certificate, the journal publication, the contract showing compensation) and contextual evidence showing why it matters (the award’s selectivity rate, the journal’s impact factor, salary surveys for your field). Expert opinion letters should connect specific achievements to the broader discipline with enough detail that the officer does not have to take anything on faith.
Organize the record into a coherent narrative. A cover letter that walks the officer through who you are, what you have accomplished, and why it qualifies as extraordinary is worth more than an extra exhibit. Tabbed, clearly labeled exhibits for each criterion make it easier for the officer to find what supports each claim. Certified translations are required for any documents not in English. An officer who has to hunt through disorganized paper is more likely to miss favorable evidence than one who can follow a clear roadmap.
If you are self-petitioning without an attorney, the RFE data is worth taking seriously. Assume there is roughly a coin-flip chance you will receive one, and build the petition as if the officer is going to challenge your weakest criterion. Preemptively addressing the obvious questions in the initial filing is cheaper than responding to them after the fact.
Premium Processing Does Not Change Your Odds
Premium processing changes the timeline, not the outcome. USCIS guarantees action within 15 business days when you file Form I-907, but “action” can mean an RFE, a Notice of Intent to Deny, or an outright denial.4U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. How Do I Request Premium Processing Paying more gets you a faster answer, not a better one. If your petition would have been denied under standard processing, premium processing gets you the denial sooner.
If Your Petition Is Denied
A denial is not the end of the road. You can file Form I-290B, Notice of Appeal or Motion, to challenge the decision. An appeal goes to the Administrative Appeals Office. A motion to reopen asks the original office to reconsider based on new facts; a motion to reconsider argues that the office applied the law incorrectly to the existing record.5U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Notice of Appeal or Motion
The deadline is tight. You must file the I-290B within 30 calendar days of the decision date, or 33 days if the decision was mailed to you. A late appeal is rejected outright. A late motion will generally be denied, though USCIS may excuse a late motion to reopen if the delay was reasonable and beyond your control.
Many applicants skip the appeal entirely and refile a stronger I-140. There is no limit on how many times you can file, and a new petition gets a fresh review without the baggage of a prior denial. If the denial identified specific weaknesses, a refiled petition that directly addresses them often has a better shot than an appeal that rehashes the same record. The tradeoff is paying the filing fee again and resetting your priority date, which matters if you are from a backlogged country such as India or China.
The Bottom Line on Your Odds
A 71% approval rate looks reassuring until you separate the strong petitions from the weak ones. The applicants who lose are, in most cases, the ones who satisfied step one on paper but never built a step-two story. If your evidence puts you at the actual top of your field and your petition explains that clearly, your real odds are considerably better than the headline number. If you are stretching to meet three criteria and hoping the officer will connect the dots, your real odds are considerably worse. The overall percentage is an average of very different cases, and yours will be judged on its own record.